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Your daily routine tells the story of the digital commerce transformation over the past 15 years. You wake up and check your phone. The news you read comes in via Meta's algorithm. Your route to work is calculated by Google Maps. Lunch is ordered via a delivery platform that decides which restaurants you see first. In the evening, you'll view products where hidden algorithms determine what draws your attention.
Walk through any European city center and notice the shift: empty storefronts and closed stores tell the one story, while online platforms capture an increasing share of trade. See your own purchasing patterns over the past year—how many transactions went through Amazon, Google, or other major platforms versus direct business relationships?
None of these interactions feels like entering a bustling marketplace where traders are openly vying for your attention. Instead, you navigate through a range of digital environments, each controlled by a platform that sets the rules, takes their part, and decides who gets visibility.
The Commerce extinction event
Every 65 million years, the Earth experiences a mass extinction. The causes vary, from asteroid impacts to volcanic eruptions and climate upheavals, but the pattern remains consistent. Species that adapt to rapid environmental changes survive. The rest will be fossil.
“This is digital commerce that's having its asteroid moment.”
The environmental conditions that supported certain business strategies are changing rapidly. Customer expectations have changed. Technological opportunities have been expanded. Regulatory frameworks now favor other approaches. Some companies are adapting to these new circumstances and finding opportunities. Others keep optimizing for an environment that no longer exists and wonder why their strategies are paying less and less.
This isn't about an overnight collapse or immediate threats. Mass extinctions in nature happen over thousands of years. But companies that recognize environmental changes early and adapt thoughtfully will have significant advantages over those waiting for proof that the old environment is gone.
Adaptation patterns in changing environments
Three environmental shifts are once again shaping digital commerce. Customer expectations have moved towards transparency and meaningful relationships. Technological capabilities are now enabling truly personalized experiences at scale. Regulatory frameworks increasingly favor open, interoperable systems over closed platforms.
Customer relationships become survival benefits
Harvard Business Review research shows that customers with emotional connections to suppliers are four times more loyal and spend up to 50% more than customers without such ties. This data point is important because it contradicts much of how digital commerce has evolved over the past decade. Most e-commerce optimization focuses on conversion rates, transaction efficiency, and algorithmic targeting. These approaches treat customers as data points that need to be impacted rather than people who need to be served. They work in the short term but create vulnerable companies that depend on continuous optimization and rising acquisition costs. Meanwhile, customers increasingly prefer companies they can trust and understand. Deloitte's 2024 Global Consumer Survey indicates that 75% of customers pay more for services from companies with transparent, sustainable practices. This preference extends beyond environmental care to include data processing, price clarity and true customer service. Think about your own purchasing behavior. When you need specialized advice or have a complex problem, do you choose the cheapest option or the company you trust to understand your situation? The shift isn't universal or immediate, but it's consistent across demographics and markets. Customers want to feel good about their buying decisions, not just getting good deals.
When environments favor other properties
Eurostat's 2023 Digital Economy and Society Index shows that 70% of European SMEs now rely on at least one major technology platform for core business functions. This dependency often develops gradually—platforms initially offer rapid market access and built-in target groups.
But environments are changing, and what once offered benefits can become limitations. Platforms control customer data, set visibility rules, and can change terms unilaterally. Companies that have adapted too much to platform requirements may find themselves less responsive to actual customer needs—such as a species that is so specialized for one environment that struggles when conditions shift.
Consider a retailer that primarily sells via Amazon. They optimize for Amazon's search algorithm, follow Amazon's pricing rules, and communicate with customers via Amazon's system. When they want to launch a new product line or enter a different market, they discover that they don't actually own the customer relationship. They're optimizing for Amazon's success metrics rather than their own long-term goals.
This does not mean that platforms should be completely avoided. It means understanding the trade-offs and developing complementary strategies that maintain strategic control over customer relationships and core business functions.
The human advantage in an AI world
McKinsey's 2024 State of AI report shows that more than half of the major European companies are now using generative AI applications, primarily in marketing, sales and operations. While AI adoption accelerates, the companies that will thrive aren't the ones that replace people with machines—they're the ones that use technology to empower human capabilities.
AI excels at processing data, automating routine tasks, and identifying patterns. But customers are increasingly appreciating what technology can't replicate: true empathy, creative problem solving, ethical judgment, and authentic relationships. As more companies deploy similar AI tools, human connection becomes the primary distinguishing feature.
Imagine calling customer service with a complex issue. An AI chatbot can efficiently handle routine questions, but when you need someone who understands your specific situation, creatively navigates company policies, and follows up personally to provide a solution, you want a person who cares about solving your problem. The paradox is clear: as commerce becomes more automated, the remaining human touchpoints become exponentially more valuable.
Smart companies are using AI to eliminate routine work so that their people can focus on these irreplaceable human activities. They automate logistics to make better relationships possible. They use algorithms to identify customer needs and then use people to fulfill them in a meaningful way. They invest in both technology and human development, with the understanding that sustainable competitive advantage comes from the combination, not just technology.
Circular economy principles are reshaping business models
The traditional commerce model—manufacturing, selling, discarding—is under increasing pressure due to commodity restrictions, regulatory changes, and changing customer preferences. According to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation's 2024 Circularity Report, Europe's circular economy is growing at a rate of 25% per year, as companies explore models based on access rather than ownership.
Product-as-a-service models create recurring revenue streams while the manufacturer maintains control over the product lifecycle. Instead of selling you a washing machine, a company provides clean clothes as a service. Instead of buying software licenses, you get access to opportunities when you need them. Modular design allows repair and upgrading rather than replacement. Transparent supply chains allow customers to make informed decisions about the true cost of their purchases.
These approaches require different metrics and long-term thinking than traditional sales models. Success is measured by customer lifetime value, product utilization rates, and environmental impact rather than transaction volume alone.
Regulatory frameworks favor openness
European legislation such as the Digital Markets Act (2022) and Digital Services Act (2022) reflects a broader policy change towards interoperability, data portability and competition. These regulations respond to concerns about market concentration and platform power, but also create opportunities for companies that develop more open, collaborative approaches.
Interoperable systems allow customers to move their data and relationships between providers. This increases competition but also allows companies to focus on creating real value instead of maintaining artificial switching costs.
Open source technologies and open standards become more attractive when regulatory requirements favor transparency and user control. Companies that use these approaches may find themselves better positioned for compliance and customer trust.
What this means for strategic planning
These trends create both challenges and opportunities. Companies that succeed in this environment share several characteristics: they prioritize long-term customer relationships over short-term optimization, they maintain strategic control over core business functions while selectively using platforms, they invest in technology that enhances rather than replaces human capabilities, and they design business models around customer value rather than transaction volume.
The transition is not immediate or uniform across markets. Different industries and customer segments are adapting at different speeds. But the direction of change is consistent enough to inform strategic planning.
Companies have choices about how to respond. They can continue to optimize for current conditions while monitoring changes. They can experiment with new approaches in specific market segments or product lines. They can make fundamental changes to business models and technology architecture.
Each approach involves trade-offs between risk, costs, and potential benefit. The key is making these choices aware based on a clear understanding of what is changing and how it affects your specific market and customer base.
Building adaptive capacity
In evolutionary biology, the species that flourish during environmental transitions share certain traits: they maintain genetic diversity, develop flexible behavior, and build redundant systems that operate under different conditions.
Digital commerce companies can apply similar principles. Perhaps the most important ability in this environment is adaptability itself—the ability to recognize changes in customer expectations, technological opportunities, and market conditions and respond effectively.
This requires business models that can evolve, technology architectures that support change, and organizational cultures that value learning over rigid optimization. It also means choosing partners and technology providers whose interests are in line with long-term flexibility rather than short-term dependence—such as building diverse ecosystems instead of monocultures.
Open Commerce exists to help companies navigate these choices. We provide objective analysis of options, honest assessment of trade-offs, and implementation support that maintains strategic flexibility. Our goal is not to sell certain solutions, but to help companies make informed decisions based on their specific circumstances and goals.
The silent revolution that is reshaping digital commerce is creating real opportunities for companies that are willing to understand what's changing and adapt thoughtfully. The question is not whether these changes will continue—the evidence suggests they will. The question is how to position your company to benefit while managing the inherent risks of any significant change.
That's the conversation we'd love to help you navigate.
